USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar Weakness raises risk of a bearish bias below 144.00
The USD/JPY is struggling to hold key support on Monday as bullish momentum continues to fade, with both the daily and weekly charts indicating weakening trend strength.
After failing to sustain gains above the 148.00 level last week, the pair has drifted lower, moving back toward rising trendline support near the 144.00 handle.
This trendline currently aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–April decline at 144.37, a zone the pair is now trying to defend. Monday’s price action shows USD/JPY attempting to stabilize above this support area, but momentumindicatorssuggest the move may lack conviction.
At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 144.19. With momentum softening across various timeframes, technical signals continue to indicate a range-bound market, increasing the risk of a downside break if support levels fail to hold.
Momentum indicators hint at fading trend strength for USD/JPY
The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily timeframe has dropped to 10.87, indicating an extremely weak trend, even more so than the weekly reading. This further confirms that recent moves are corrective in nature rather than part of a sustained trend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart is also flattening out, with histogram bars losing strength and the signal line turning sideways. This suggests a lack of bullish follow-through after last week’s failed breakout near 148.00.
USD/JPY daily chart
The weekly chart below illustrates how longer-term moving averages continue to act as dynamicsupport and resistancefor USD/JPY price action.
Last week, the pair surged after climbing above both the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2%Fibonacciretracement at 147.14.
A weaker Yen helped fuel the recovery, briefly lifting the pair to retest the psychological 148.00 level.
USD/JPY dips below the 20-week SMA as bullish momentum fades
However, the move stalled as profit-taking and a lack of bullish follow-through triggered a reversal. This is reflected in the weekly candle’s thin upper wick, indicating fading buying interest near 148.00. The pair has since slipped back below the 20-week SMA, which now turns into resistance at 145.92.
Momentum signals are softening. The ADX closed last week pointing lower, indicating weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the zero line, suggesting any upside seen so far is likely corrective rather than the start of a sustainable uptrend.
USD/JPY weekly chart
Bearish bias persists for USD/JPY below 144.00
Looking to this week, Monday’s price action has pushed the pair toward rising trendline support, which is currently holding above the psychological 144.00 level.
A break below 144.00 could bring the 142.79 area into focus, the third touchpoint of the ascending trendline. Below that, 142.00 stands as another key psychological level, with a deeper move possibly exposing the 140.00 handle.
The April trendline remains a key short-term support structure; however, broader technical indicators suggest a cautiousoutlook. Both the 20 and 50-week SMAs continue to slope downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish bias unless price can reclaim and hold above the 149.00 region.
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